Early reports from the 2026 tax filing season indicate that many taxpayers may receive larger refunds this time than last year. According to data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as of February 13, the average federal tax refund has reached approximately $2,476. This is approximately 14% more than the same period last year.
Approximately 12.96 million Americans have received their refunds so far. This increase is positive news for those who have received this money, especially amid rising inflation and household expenses. However, the story is not entirely straightforward—while the average refund amount has increased, the total number of refunds issued is slightly lower than last year.
More Money, But Fewer Refunds: What’s the Real Picture?
The number of refunds issued as of February 13th was 12.96 million, compared to 13.66 million by the same time in 2025. This represents a decline of approximately 5%. Furthermore, total tax return filings are lagging behind last year by approximately 2.6%.
This means that, on average, each individual is receiving more money this year, but fewer people have received refunds so far. This situation is considered normal in the early weeks, as many people file returns around the April 15th deadline. Early data often reflects those who file early and simple returns.
More good news for those with direct deposit:
Taxpayers who opted for direct deposit—still the most popular method—are receiving an average refund of $2,548. This is approximately 13% higher than last year.
Direct deposit is not only fast but also considered secure. Most people who choose direct deposit with electronic filing receive their refunds within 21 days.
Tax Credit Impact: The Full Picture Isn’t Yet Revealed
The IRS has clearly stated that preliminary data does not yet include complete data on taxpayers who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC). These two tax credits are typically associated with larger refunds.
The update to be released on February 27th, which will include returns processed through February 20th, may show the average refund amount increasing further. Therefore, it is premature to draw final conclusions.
What is the reason behind the larger refunds?
During a White House press conference in December 2025, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt mentioned a new law that came into effect on July 4, 2025, called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” This law made several significant changes to the tax code.
These changes included an increase in the child tax credit, an increase in the standard deduction, and the elimination of federal taxes on tips and overtime income. This relief was particularly significant for service-sector workers.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also indicated in December that many families could receive $1,000 to $2,000 more in refunds this year. Preliminary IRS data does not contradict this estimate.
Analysts estimate that total refund payments this season could reach approximately $91 billion, with approximately $30 billion already in the hands of individuals due to the reduced tax cuts through 2025.
How to Check Refund Status?
If you’ve filed your return and are waiting, the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool is the fastest and most reliable way. This feature is available on the IRS’s official website and the IRS2Go mobile app.
To check the status, you’ll need to enter your Social Security number, filing status, and the exact refund amount. This system is updated only once a day, usually in the morning. Therefore, checking repeatedly won’t speed up the process.
The status appears in three stages:
- Return Received
- Refund Approved
- Refund Sent
“Refund Sent” means your money has either been transferred to your bank or a check has been mailed.
Why might refunds be delayed?
The number of returns processed by the IRS has declined by approximately 3.1% this year. This decline may be due to staffing and operational reasons.
Refunds processed through electronic filing and direct deposit are typically received within 21 days. Those filing on paper may have to wait 4 to 8 weeks. If a return requires manual review, the time may increase, and the IRS sends a notification regarding this by mail.
A phone helpline (1-800-829-1040) is available, but using online tools is a more practical option due to long hold times.
Conclusion: Could your refund be even bigger?
Data from early 2026 indicates that the average tax refund this year could be higher than last year. Tax code changes, increased credits, and reduced withholding have had a positive impact for many families.
However, the full picture is yet to emerge. As tax season progresses and more returns are processed, the actual trends will become clearer.
If you haven’t filed yet, submit your return on time and use the official IRS tool to check your refund status. With the right information and patience, you can ensure your tax refund reaches your account safely and on time.
FAQs
Q. How much is the average IRS tax refund in early 2026?
A. The average federal tax refund is about $2,476, roughly 14% higher than last year.
Q. Why could refunds be bigger this year?
A. Changes in tax laws, including higher credits and adjusted withholdings, may increase refund amounts.
Q. How long does it take to receive a refund?
A. Most electronic filers with direct deposit receive refunds within 21 days.
Q. How can I check my IRS refund status?
A. Use the IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tool online or through the IRS2Go app.
Q. Why are fewer refunds issued so far in 2026?
A. Early data shows slightly fewer returns filed and processed compared to the same time last year.
